There are some glimmers of hope emerging with regards to the pandemic, and although it would be dangerous to assume that the worst is past, it is reassuring to see some slightly better news. China has just reported no new daily cases and as we mentioned recently Australia and New Zealand have both started to ease lockdown. Germany too has also eased restrictions. In their case, there has been some concern because another small outbreak has been reported after lockdown was eased. About 40 people attending a church service were reported to have caught the virus. However, the fact that these were tested and isolated is in itself reassuring as a sign that tracking and tracing, considered by many to be the key to easing lockdown unless and until a vaccine is found, is working well.
Italy has seen one of the worst outbreaks. To date it has reported 32,400 deaths and 228,000 cases. The north of the country and Lombardy in particular has been very hard hit by the virus. Television footage of the impacts of the pandemic on the town of Bergamo are perhaps some of the most harrowing to emerge during the crisis. However, with cases dropping and the number of deaths now falling to around 100 a day - horrifying enough in itself but around 10% of the death rate at the peak of the outbreak - the government has now started to release lockdown. Bars, cafes and restaurants have reopened for the first time in more than two months. People are now flocking back to the streets and places such as Milan are particularly busy. The tourist hotspot of Venice, which signalled to the world how serious the problem was getting when it cancelled the last week of its world famous Carnival in February this year, is amongst those to reopen. Italy is now planning to reopen its border to tourists on June 3.
This is potentially very good news for an economy that was struggling desperately along with many of the Italian people. As anyone who has visited Italy will affirm, the economy is very dependent on a large number of small bars and restaurants to keep it going as well as larger enterprises; and they will have been badly hit by the lockdown. However, concerns are already being expressed that things have swung too far the other way. Luca Zaia, the governor of the Veneto region, is so concerned at the large crowds that have appeared on the streets that he has threatened to lock up the region again. In Rome, 1,000 police officers will be deployed to patrol the city’s night clubs and stop mass gatherings. Checks will also be carried out in local parks and on beaches around the capital to ensure that crowds are not developing. Even in Bergamo, which has worse memories than most other places in the world, the Mayor has expressed his anger after seeing so many people on the streets without wearing face protection. Although there is something of a debate internationally about the efficacy or otherwise of face masks, the momentum seems to be going towards the view that they should be worn, certainly when people are in close proximity to each other.
This is a reminder that coming out of lockdown is unlikely to be a straightforward process. There is a danger that once lockdown is eased people breathe a huge sigh of relief and think that the threat of the virus has been overcome. This is unlikely to be the case as reoccurrences of the virus in Germany and South Korea for example are a reminder that even if the virus has been suppressed, it has not yet been eliminated. Locking down again on a national scale would be disastrous for the economy as well as people’s health, mental as well as physical. In the case of Germany and South Korea, the existence of strong track and trace capabilities is an important part of managing to ease lockdown while keeping both eyes open for possible recurrences of the outbreak. It would be prudent for any other country thinking of easing restrictions to ensure that it has similar levels of track and trace capacity to hand.
Wayne Bartlett is an author for accountingcpd. To see his courses, click here.
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