Real World Forecasting

by John Taylor

We can't prevent every mistake, but we can create forecasts that are adaptable and resilient. This course equips you with the practical skills to develop meaningful forecasts that drive better business decisions.

price £100+vat
cpd hours 4 CPD hours
access 120 days' access

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This course will enable you to

  • Identify the utility and the limitations of forecasts
  • Create forecasts that are resilient, adaptable, and add genuine value to your organisation
  • Use technology, such as AI, to efficiently create forecasts
  • Incorporate the spikes and troughs of demand into your forecasts
  • Translate complex forecasting data into clear guidance for management action

About the course

Life is too unpredictable for us to know everything that's going to happen, and there's no way we can prevent every possible mistake—any forecast that promises an exact picture of the future is probably completely wrong. But if we bear this in mind, we can create a forecast that is useful, adaptable, and resilient.

This course explores the art of forecasting. Although there will be statistics and equations, the reality is that forecasts will always rely most heavily on an accountant's good judgement. We focus on this element, ensuring that the forecasts that you build lead to good decisions.

Look inside

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Contents

  • The basics
    • Why bother?
    • Budgets and forecasts
    • The importance of forecasting
    • Top down and bottom up
    • The basis
    • Adding value
    • The dangers
    • Defining the forecast period
    • The effect of AI
    • The dangers of complexity
  • Operational forecasting
    • Defining operational forecasting
    • Creating an operational forecast
    • Demand
    • Assembling the data
    • Forecasting methods
    • Different approaches
    • Qualitative approaches
    • Quantitative methods
    • Time series approaches
    • Forecasting error metrics
  • Financial forecasting
    • An objective
    • Accurate forecasts
    • Identifying drivers
    • Raw data
    • The importance of ratios
    • Consider capital expenditure
    • Forecasting capex
    • Sensitivity analysis and scenario planning
  • Planning for uncertainty
    • Forecasting is not compulsory
    • When to forecast
    • Building forecast models
    • Keeping danger at bay
    • Scenario management
    • Dealing with risk
    • Key performance indicators
    • Decision-making
    • Making mistakes
    • Long-term forecasts

How it works

Author

John Taylor

John is a Chartered Accountant who has spent many years advising small and medium-sized businesses across the North of England. John is the author of two industry standard textbooks: Millichamp - Auditing and Forensic Accounting. He has also written several auditing textbooks for AAT courses.

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Access to this course
Total CPD unitshourshours4 unitshourshours21 units20 hours21 hours1,500+ unitshourshours1,500+ unitshourshours
Access period120 days120 days12 months12+ months
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Monthly webinars, 15-minute CPD Bites, video interviews with industry leaders, and more!
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Use ACPD101 for 10% off any purchase.